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item_id: 9597dff565154d2a89bc2e4ca085d3cf
item_updated_time: 1782143672736
title_diff: "[{\"diffs\":[[1,\"Gen 3 Round 2 Sweep — Weighted Decision Parameters\"]],\"start1\":0,\"start2\":0,\"length1\":0,\"length2\":50}]"
body_diff: "[{\"diffs\":[[1,\"# Gen 3 Round 2 Parameter Sweep\\\n\\\n**Date**: 2026-06-14\\\n**Status**: 🔄 RUNNING (192 runs, ~4.5h total)\\\n**Script**: `.sweep_tmp/sweep_gen3_round2.py`\\\n\\\n## Setup\\\n- 5 Gen3 (tuned) vs 5 Gen2 V3 (baseline), 10 seats\\\n- 10,000 hands per run, 4 seeds (42, 1337, 9999, 7777)\\\n- `reset_bankroll_each_hand = true`, `randomize_seats = true`\\\n- 16 parameters × 3 values × 4 seeds = 192 runs\\\n\\\n## Parameters Swept\\\n\\\n### New weighted-decision weights (6)\\\n| Parameter | Default | Low / Mid / High |\\\n|-----------|---------|-------------------|\\\n| `call_w_draw` | 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.8 / 1.2 |\\\n| `call_w_pot_odds` | 0.5 | 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 |\\\n| `call_w_commitment` | 0.3 | 0.15 / 0.3 / 0.5 |\\\n| `raise_w_draw` | 0.5 | 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 |\\\n| `raise_w_bluff` | 0.3 | 0.15 / 0.3 / 0.5 |\\\n| `range_draw_weight` | 1.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 / 2.0 |\\\n\\\n### Previously dead, now effective (3)\\\n| Parameter | Default | Low / Mid / High |\\\n|-----------|---------|-------------------|\\\n| `call_base` | 0.75 | 0.60 / 0.75 / 0.85 |\\\n| `call_ppot_base` | 0.38 | 0.25 / 0.38 / 0.50 |\\\n| `raise_base` | 0.93 | 0.86 / 0.93 / 0.97 |\\\n\\\n### Top performers from round 1 (4)\\\n| Parameter | Default | Low / Mid / High |\\\n|-----------|---------|-------------------|\\\n| `strong_hands_fraction` | 0.20 | 0.10 / 0.20 / 0.35 |\\\n| `bluff_factor` | 2.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 / 3.5 |\\\n| `raise_ppot_base` | 0.42 | 0.30 / 0.42 / 0.55 |\\\n| `draw_call_ppot_thresh` | 0.22 | 0.15 / 0.22 / 0.32 |\\\n\\\n### Other (3)\\\n| Parameter | Default | Low / Mid / High |\\\n|-----------|---------|-------------------|\\\n| `bet_flop_base` | 0.60 | 0.48 / 0.60 / 0.70 |\\\n| `semi_bluff_ppot_base` | 0.30 | 0.20 / 0.30 / 0.42 |\\\n| `conti_bet_fold_thresh` | 0.315 | 0.20 / 0.315 / 0.45 |\\\n\\\n## Early Observations (runs 1-67)\\\n\\\n### Parameter Sensitivity\\\nMost weighted-decision parameters show **small but non-zero sensitivity** — results differ slightly across values, confirming the OR-chain refactoring works. The differences are small because these parameters only affect marginal hands (draw-heavy, specific pot-odds situations).\\\n\\\n### `call_w_pot_odds` — Most Promising\\\nAt 0.75 (high), Gen3 swings positive on multiple seeds:\\\n- seed 9999: delta +1.4 (vs +0.5 at default)\\\n- seed 7777: delta +0.9 (vs +0.1 at default)\\\n- seed 42: delta -1.0 (vs -1.6 at default, improved)\\\n\\\nThis suggests higher pot-odds sensitivity helps Gen3 in multi-way pots.\\\n\\\n### Gen3 Underperforms Gen2 in 10-seat Format\\\nGen3 is consistently negative on seed 42 (delta ~-1.6) regardless of parameter. This contrasts with the 6-max benchmark where Gen3 beat Gen2 (+2.53 vs +1.02). Hypothesis: Gen3's range-based approach may be disadvantaged in large fields where the single shared range doesn't model diverse opponents well.\\\n\\\n## Key Bug Found & Fixed During Sweep\\\n\\\n### Pot-odds floor regression\\\nThe initial review fix added a hard pot-odds floor (`win_prob > required_equity / 0.75 → always call`) that made ALL parameters dead (identical results across all values). This was the same problem as the original OR-chain. Fixed by removing the hard floor and relying on the graduated `call_w_pot_odds` threshold adjustment instead.\\\n\\\n### Threshold floor added\\\nTo prevent degenerate over-calling at sweep-extreme parameter values: `threshold = threshold.max(required_equity * 0.5)`.\\\n\\\n## Results\\\nWill be written to `.sweep_tmp/results_round2.csv` when complete. Analysis TBD.\"]],\"start1\":0,\"start2\":0,\"length1\":0,\"length2\":3303}]"
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updated_time: 2026-06-22T15:57:19.179Z
created_time: 2026-06-22T15:57:19.179Z
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