Hand #3 (166fb094) — AQo SB Fold (Too Tight)

# Hand #3 — AQo SB Fold (Too Tight)

**Date:** 2026-06-23
**Issue:** B7/B9 — bot folds premium hands preflop with favourable pot odds
**Severity:** High
**Config:** `cash_nl.toml` (Gen 3: ng_preflop + g3_postflop_rollout)

## Situation

| | |
|---|---|
| **Hero** | Ad Qh |
| **Position** | SB (#1/5) |
| **Street** | Preflop |
| **Board** | — |
| **Pot** | $10,500 |
| **To call** | $3,500 (3.5 BB) |
| **Pot odds** | ~25% (4:1) |
| **Active** | 5 |

## Action Sequence

1. **Preflop:** KingZa08 limps ($1,000)
2. Bastard1911 raises to $4,000
3. SPANKFEST2000 (BTN) calls $4,000
4. **Bot decision: FOLD** ← **PROBLEM**

## Why This Is Wrong

- **AQo is a premium hand** — top 5% of starting hands
- Getting **4:1 pot odds** (need ~25% equity to call)
- Against typical wide ranges at this table (players opening 20x, calling off with anything), AQo has **well over 25% equity** multiway
- Multiple callers mean a big pot — implied odds are excellent
- This table is extremely loose/aggressive — opponents are playing any two cards
- AQo from the SB with 3 callers and 4:1 odds should be an **easy call at minimum**, and a squeeze raise is defensible

## Likely Root Cause

The ng_preflop strategy may be too position-aware in the SB — treating AQo as a fold when facing a raise despite excellent pot odds. The position threshold for SB may be overly conservative, or the pot-odds override isn't kicking in for premium hands. The `num_callers` count may also be inflated (B8 issue), making the call threshold appear worse than it is.

## Hand History

```
Hand #3 — NL Hold'em $500/$1000
Seat 7: SPANKFEST2000 — button
Bolsa: posts small blind $500
Krutka: posts big blind $1000
Dealt to Bolsa [Ad Qh]
KingZa08: calls $1000
Bastard1911: raises to $4000
SPANKFEST2000: calls $4000
[BOT] Bolsa → FOLD            ← should call (or squeeze)
Bolsa: folds
```

## Server Log

```
[BOT] Bolsa → Fold (street=Preflop hole=AdQh board=[] pot=10500 cur_bet=4000
  min_raise=7000 to_call=3500 hero_stack=199000 active=5 btn=7 sb=0 bb=1
  hero=0(SB(#1/5))
  players=[0*SB=199000s/500w 1*BB=413620s/1000w 3=210250s/1000w
           4=200000s/0wF 6=186964s/4000w 7*BTN=21750s/4000w])
```

## Correct Play

**Call** at minimum (squeeze raise to ~$12k-$15k is also strong given multiple callers and a premium hand). Folding AQo for 3.5 BB at 4:1 is leaving significant value on the table.

## Related

- B7 (Open Issues Tracker `60976d006f58404387784a6b90ebf04c`)
- B8 (`num_callers` inflation may worsen the call threshold)
- Same root cause as Hand #29 (ATs flop fold) — bot too passive overall

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