Parameter Sweep Results — V3 Postflop Thresholds (±1%)

## Parameter Sweep: V3 Postflop Thresholds ±1%

**Date**: 2026-06-11/12
**Method**: 19 parameters × 2 directions × 2 scenarios × 100k hands = 76 simulations
**Baseline**: V2 postflop (`g2_postflop_rollout_v2`)
**Scenarios**: field (3+3+2 chump+2 flock), flock (3+3+4 flock)

### Top Candidates — Positive in BOTH Scenarios (sorted by combined delta)

| Rank | Parameter | Direction | Value | Field Δ | Flock Δ | Combined Δ |
|------|-----------|-----------|-------|---------|---------|------------|
| 1 | `nut_draw_ppot_thresh` | up | 0.26 | +3.53 | +1.07 | **+4.60** |
| 2 | `call_turn_small_bet` | up | 0.83 | +3.86 | +0.58 | **+4.44** |
| 3 | `rope_a_dope_otb` | up | 0.95 | +2.99 | +0.58 | **+3.57** |
| 4 | `raise_default` | down | 0.915 | +2.80 | +0.54 | **+3.34** |
| 5 | `call_otb_turn_small_bet` | up | 0.83 | +2.24 | +0.54 | **+2.78** |
| 6 | `call_turn_small_bet` | down | 0.81 | +2.57 | +0.13 | +2.70 |
| 7 | `rope_a_dope_otb` | down | 0.93 | +2.20 | +0.44 | +2.64 |
| 8 | `call_river_small_bet` | up | 0.79 | +2.46 | +0.07 | +2.53 |
| 9 | `call_otb_turn_small_bet` | down | 0.81 | +1.59 | +0.76 | +2.35 |
| 10 | `nut_draw_quality_thresh` | down | 0.69 | +1.88 | +0.41 | +2.29 |
| 11 | `call_otb_flop_small_bet` | up | 0.87 | +1.37 | +0.84 | +2.21 |
| 12 | `check_raise_turn` | up | 0.94 | +0.16 | +1.42 | +1.58 |
| 13 | `nut_draw_ppot_thresh` | down | 0.24 | +1.30 | +0.48 | +1.78 |
| 14 | `check_raise_flop` | up | 0.96 | +1.24 | +0.51 | +1.75 |
| 15 | `call_river_small_bet` | down | 0.77 | +1.20 | +0.68 | +1.88 |
| 16 | `raise_ppot_otb` | down | 0.39 | +0.30 | +1.11 | +1.41 |
| 17 | `raise_otb_default` | up | 0.90 | +0.76 | +0.74 | +1.50 |
| 18 | `adj_ppot_base_weight` | up | 0.51 | +0.89 | +0.47 | +1.36 |
| 19 | `rope_a_dope_default` | down | 0.94 | +0.87 | +0.44 | +1.31 |
| 20 | `draw_call_ppot_thresh` | up | 0.26 | +0.39 | +0.84 | +1.23 |
| 21 | `nut_draw_quality_thresh` | up | 0.71 | +0.62 | +0.62 | +1.24 |
| 22 | `check_raise_flop` | down | 0.94 | +0.36 | +0.89 | +1.25 |
| 23 | `raise_default` | up | 0.935 | +0.19 | +0.52 | +0.71 |

### High Field Delta but NEGATIVE Flock (dangerous)

| Parameter | Direction | Value | Field Δ | Flock Δ |
|-----------|-----------|-------|---------|---------|
| `call_flop_small_bet` | down | 0.85 | **+4.46** | -0.31 |
| `draw_call_ppot_thresh` | down | 0.24 | +3.50 | -0.16 |
| `npot_trap_ceiling` | down | 0.06 | +3.11 | +0.11 |
| `check_raise_turn` | down | 0.92 | +2.60 | -0.22 |
| `rope_a_dope_default` | up | 0.96 | +2.55 | -0.66 |
| `call_otb_flop_small_bet` | down | 0.85 | +2.85 | -0.74 |
| `call_default` | down | 0.93 | +2.62 | -0.13 |
| `raise_otb_default` | down | 0.88 | +2.53 | -0.16 |

### Key Insights

1. **`nut_draw_ppot_thresh` ↑0.26** is the strongest single change (+4.60 combined). Both directions are positive, suggesting the current 0.25 is a local minimum — but the upward direction dominates.

2. **`call_turn_small_bet` both up AND down are positive**, suggesting 0.82 is suboptimal and 0.83 is the better direction.

3. **`rope_a_dope_otb` both up and down are positive** — the current 0.94 is suboptimal; 0.95 (up) is stronger overall.

4. **`raise_default` down to 0.915** is a strong consistent improvement (+3.34 combined). Lowering the raise threshold means raising more liberally.

5. **Several high field-delta params are dangerous in flock**: `call_flop_small_bet_down`, `npot_trap_ceiling_down`, `draw_call_ppot_thresh_down` — these exploit chump bots but lose against strong opponents.

### Recommended Next Steps

Run a **combinatorial sweep** of the top 3-5 candidates to find the best multi-parameter configuration:
- `nut_draw_ppot_thresh = 0.26`
- `call_turn_small_bet = 0.83`
- `rope_a_dope_otb = 0.95`
- `raise_default = 0.915`
- `call_otb_turn_small_bet = 0.83`

### Raw Data

```
parameter,direction,value,scenario,tuned_avg,base_avg,delta
adj_ppot_base_weight,up,0.5100,field,44.51,43.62,0.89
adj_ppot_base_weight,up,0.5100,flock,1.21,0.74,0.47
adj_ppot_base_weight,down,0.4900,field,45.60,43.51,2.09
adj_ppot_base_weight,down,0.4900,flock,1.18,1.32,-0.14
nut_draw_ppot_thresh,up,0.2600,field,45.66,42.13,3.53
nut_draw_ppot_thresh,up,0.2600,flock,1.56,0.49,1.07
nut_draw_ppot_thresh,down,0.2400,field,45.30,44.00,1.30
nut_draw_ppot_thresh,down,0.2400,flock,1.25,0.77,0.48
nut_draw_quality_thresh,up,0.7100,field,44.66,44.04,0.62
nut_draw_quality_thresh,up,0.7100,flock,1.26,0.64,0.62
nut_draw_quality_thresh,down,0.6900,field,44.60,42.72,1.88
nut_draw_quality_thresh,down,0.6900,flock,1.12,0.71,0.41
npot_trap_ceiling,up,0.0800,field,43.66,44.04,-0.38
npot_trap_ceiling,up,0.0800,flock,0.99,0.78,0.21
npot_trap_ceiling,down,0.0600,field,46.29,43.18,3.11
npot_trap_ceiling,down,0.0600,flock,1.04,0.93,0.11
draw_call_ppot_thresh,up,0.2600,field,44.30,43.91,0.39
draw_call_ppot_thresh,up,0.2600,flock,1.65,0.81,0.84
draw_call_ppot_thresh,down,0.2400,field,45.35,41.85,3.50
draw_call_ppot_thresh,down,0.2400,flock,0.91,1.07,-0.16
call_default,up,0.9500,field,44.84,42.88,1.96
call_default,up,0.9500,flock,0.89,1.01,-0.12
call_default,down,0.9300,field,45.95,43.33,2.62
call_default,down,0.9300,flock,0.92,1.05,-0.13
call_flop_small_bet,up,0.8700,field,45.24,42.80,2.44
call_flop_small_bet,up,0.8700,flock,0.98,1.00,-0.02
call_flop_small_bet,down,0.8500,field,46.70,42.24,4.46
call_flop_small_bet,down,0.8500,flock,0.80,1.11,-0.31
call_turn_small_bet,up,0.8300,field,45.92,42.06,3.86
call_turn_small_bet,up,0.8300,flock,1.22,0.64,0.58
call_turn_small_bet,down,0.8100,field,44.75,42.18,2.57
call_turn_small_bet,down,0.8100,flock,1.17,1.04,0.13
call_river_small_bet,up,0.7900,field,45.21,42.75,2.46
call_river_small_bet,up,0.7900,flock,1.06,0.99,0.07
call_river_small_bet,down,0.7700,field,44.74,43.54,1.20
call_river_small_bet,down,0.7700,flock,1.33,0.65,0.68
call_otb_flop_small_bet,up,0.8700,field,44.39,43.02,1.37
call_otb_flop_small_bet,up,0.8700,flock,1.46,0.62,0.84
call_otb_flop_small_bet,down,0.8500,field,44.63,41.78,2.85
call_otb_flop_small_bet,down,0.8500,flock,0.71,1.45,-0.74
call_otb_turn_small_bet,up,0.8300,field,45.04,42.80,2.24
call_otb_turn_small_bet,up,0.8300,flock,1.18,0.64,0.54
call_otb_turn_small_bet,down,0.8100,field,45.12,43.53,1.59
call_otb_turn_small_bet,down,0.8100,flock,1.40,0.64,0.76
raise_default,up,0.9350,field,45.04,44.85,0.19
raise_default,up,0.9350,flock,1.26,0.74,0.52
raise_default,down,0.9150,field,45.08,42.28,2.80
raise_default,down,0.9150,flock,1.35,0.81,0.54
raise_ppot_default,up,0.3700,field,43.30,44.29,-0.99
raise_ppot_default,up,0.3700,flock,1.27,0.69,0.58
raise_ppot_default,down,0.3500,field,44.54,43.12,1.42
raise_ppot_default,down,0.3500,flock,0.91,1.29,-0.38
raise_otb_default,up,0.9000,field,44.67,43.91,0.76
raise_otb_default,up,0.9000,flock,1.46,0.72,0.74
raise_otb_default,down,0.8800,field,44.82,42.29,2.53
raise_otb_default,down,0.8800,flock,1.06,1.22,-0.16
raise_ppot_otb,up,0.4100,field,43.43,44.29,-0.86
raise_ppot_otb,up,0.4100,flock,1.13,0.82,0.31
raise_ppot_otb,down,0.3900,field,45.53,45.23,0.30
raise_ppot_otb,down,0.3900,flock,1.60,0.49,1.11
check_raise_flop,up,0.9600,field,45.23,43.99,1.24
check_raise_flop,up,0.9600,flock,1.29,0.78,0.51
check_raise_flop,down,0.9400,field,44.68,44.32,0.36
check_raise_flop,down,0.9400,flock,1.46,0.57,0.89
check_raise_turn,up,0.9400,field,44.67,44.51,0.16
check_raise_turn,up,0.9400,flock,1.73,0.31,1.42
check_raise_turn,down,0.9200,field,45.53,42.93,2.60
check_raise_turn,down,0.9200,flock,0.98,1.20,-0.22
rope_a_dope_default,up,0.9600,field,45.93,43.38,2.55
rope_a_dope_default,up,0.9600,flock,0.73,1.39,-0.66
rope_a_dope_default,down,0.9400,field,44.65,43.78,0.87
rope_a_dope_default,down,0.9400,flock,1.31,0.87,0.44
rope_a_dope_otb,up,0.9500,field,46.31,43.32,2.99
rope_a_dope_otb,up,0.9500,flock,1.26,0.68,0.58
rope_a_dope_otb,down,0.9300,field,46.07,43.87,2.20
rope_a_dope_otb,down,0.9300,flock,1.10,0.66,0.44
```

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