Hand #29 (ea30be42) — ATs Flop Fold (Too Tight)

# Hand #29 — ATs Flop Fold (Too Tight)

**Date:** 2026-06-23
**Issue:** B7 — bot folds strong made hands too easily postflop
**Severity:** High
**Config:** `cash_nl.toml` (Gen 3: ng_preflop + g3_postflop_rollout)

## Situation

| | |
|---|---|
| **Hero** | As Td |
| **Position** | UTG (#3/7) |
| **Street** | Flop |
| **Board** | [Ts Ks 7d] |
| **Pot** | $17,000 |
| **To call** | $1,000 (1 BB) |
| **Pot odds** | ~6% needed (18:1) |
| **Active** | 5 |

## Action Sequence

1. **Preflop:** Hero calls 2 BB with ATs from MP1 → standard
2. **Preflop (2nd):** Hero calls 1 BB more (squeeze raise, 14:1 pot odds) → standard
3. **Flop:** [Ts Ks 7d] — someone bets $1,000 into $17,000 pot (tiny stab)
4. **Bot decision: FOLD** ← **PROBLEM**

## Why This Is Wrong

- Hero has **pair of tens + ace kicker** (second pair on K-high board)
- Plus a **backdoor spade flush draw** (As + Ks on board)
- Getting **18:1 pot odds** — needs only ~6% equity to break even
- Even against a tight range (AK, KQ, sets, two-pair), pair of tens + ace kicker has well above 6% equity
- This is a **trivial call** — folding here is egregiously tight

## Likely Root Cause

B7 issue — the g3_postflop_rollout strategy undervalues made hands when facing bets, particularly medium-strength pairs. The `bet_adj_cap` and call thresholds may be too conservative, causing the bot to fold hands that have clear pot-odds justification to continue.

## Hand History

```
Bolsa: posts big blind $1000
Dealt to Bolsa [As Td]
Nobodys: calls $1000          (limp)
SPANKFEST2000: raises to $2000 (min-raise squeeze)
Bolsa: calls $1000             (14:1 pot odds)
Wrislocked: calls $1000
KingZa08: calls $1000
ahmad_kaab: folds

FLOP: [Ts Ks 7d]
GreenApplez: checks
Borchinela: bets $1000         (tiny stab into 17000 pot)
[BOT] Bolsa → FOLD            ← should call
```

## Server Log

```
[BOT] Bolsa → Fold (street=Flop hole=AsTd board=[Ts Ks 7d] pot=17000 cur_bet=1000
  min_raise=2000 to_call=1000 hero_stack=184500 active=5 btn=4 sb=6 bb=7
  hero=0(UTG(#3/5))
  players=[0=184500s/0w 1=477620s/0wF 3=185750s/0w 4*BTN=159500s/0w
           5=137700s/0wF 6*SB=194500s/0w 7*BB=80500s/0wF 8=183000s/1000w])
```

## Correct Play

**Call.** Pair of tens + ace kicker + backdoor flush for 1 BB at 18:1 is an easy call. Even raising could be considered against a tiny stab from a likely weak range.

## Related

- B7 (Open Issues Tracker `60976d006f58404387784a6b90ebf04c`)
- Same root cause as Hand #3 (AQo SB fold)

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